ArticleNature communications2024
Anticipating regime shifts by mixing early warning signals from different nodes.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Detecting and forecasting tipping points from sample variance alone.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Navigating tipping points: A complex systems framework for anticipating lake ecosystem collapse.Fundamental research · 2026Review
- Frequent Droughts Reduce Carbon Stabilisation in Organo-Mineral Soils.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Observing network dynamics through sentinel nodes.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Applicability of spatial early warning signals to complex network dynamics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Early warning of regime switching in a complex financial system from a spillover network dynamic perspective.iScience · 2025Article
- Local Predictors of Explosive Synchronization with Ordinal Methods.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Real systems showing regime shifts, such as ecosystems, are often composed of many dynamical elements interacting on a network. Various early warning signals have been proposed for anticipating regime shifts from observed data. However, it is unclear how one should combine early warning signals from different nodes for better performance. Based on theory of stochastic differential equations, we propose a method to optimize the node set from which to construct an early warning signal. The proposed method takes into account that uncertainty as well as the magnitude of the signal affects its predictive performance, that a large magnitude or small uncertainty of the signal in one situation does not imply the signal's high performance, and that combining early warning signals from different nodes is often but not always beneficial. The method performs well particularly when different nodes are subjected to different amounts of dynamical noise and stress.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.