Identifying mechanisms of persecutory ideation maintenance with smartphone technology: Examining threat importance, certainty, rumination, and behavior change.

Previous cross-sectional and laboratory research has identified risk factors for persecutory ideation including rumination, negative affect, and safety-seeking behaviors. Questions remain about what in-the-moment factors link general negative affect to PI as well as which maintain PI over time. In the present study, N = 219 individuals completed momentary assessments of PI as well as four factors (attributing threats as certain and important, ruminating, and changing one's behavior in response) proposed to maintain PI over time. Linear mixed effects models were used to analyze multiple time-varying relationships, including these factors predicting negative affect and vice versa, as well as factors predicting maintenance of PI over time. Linear mixed effects models were used to analyze multiple time-varying relationships, examining each PI-related factor predicting negative affect, negative affect predicting each PI-related factor, as well as each factor predicting maintenance of PI over time. All four factors were associated with increases in subsequent day self-reported severity of PI, suggesting all four increased the likelihood of maintaining or worsening next-day PI. Results of this study confirm that the proposed factors are key in maintaining a cycle by which PI and negative affect are maintained over time. These factors may represent targets for momentary interventions.