ArticleBMC surgery2024
Development and validation a nomogram for predicting new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation following pulmonary resection.
Article in BMC surgery, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- Does the surgical approach affect the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation after thoracic surgery? A systematic review and meta-analysis.Updates in surgery · 2025Pooled it
- Incidence and predictors of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients with preoperative sinus rhythm undergoing cardiac or aortic surgery.Heart and vessels · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (NOPAF) following pulmonary resection is a common clinical concern. The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram to intuitively predict the risk of NOPAF and offered protective treatments.
methodsPatients who underwent pulmonary resection between January 2018 and December 2020 were consecutively enrolled. Forward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to screen independent predictors, and a derived nomogram model was built. The model performance was evaluated in terms of calibration, discrimination and clinical utility and validated with bootstrap resampling.
resultsA total of 3583 patients who met the research criteria were recruited for this study. The incidence of NOPAF was 1.507% (54/3583). A nomogram, composed of five independent predictors, namely age, admission heart rate, extent of resection, laterality, percent maximum ventilation volume per minute (%MVV), was constructed. The concordance index (C-index) was 0.811. The nomogram showed substantial discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.811 (95% CI 0.758-0.864). Moreover, the model shows prominent calibration performance and higher net clinical benefits.
conclusionWe developed a novel nomogram that can predict the risk of NOPAF following pulmonary resection, which may assist clinicians predict the individual probability of NOPAF and perform available prophylaxis. By using bootstrap resampling for validation, the optimal discrimination and calibration were demonstrated, indicating that the nomogram may have clinical practicality.
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