ReviewNature biotechnology2024
Medicare price negotiation and pharmaceutical innovation following the Inflation Reduction Act.
Review in Nature biotechnology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Editing the rulebook: building the policy environment for children to access gene therapy.Pediatric research · 2026Article
- Medicare spending and most-favored-nation pricing models.Health affairs scholar · 2026Article
- Lessons from drug revenue life cycles: distributions across modalities and therapeutic areas.Nature biotechnology · 2026Article
- Regulatory approval, reimbursement and postmarketing evidence of class 1 novel drugs in China, 2018-2023: an observational study.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Understanding biopharmaceutical investment decision-making: how does Congressional Budget Office's model compare to investor insights?Health affairs scholar · 2025Article
- Impact of six rounds of national drug price negotiation on availability, cost, use, and prices of targeted drugs in China.BMC health services research · 2025Article
- Revenue Differences Between Top-Selling Small-Molecule Drugs and Biologics in Medicare.JAMA health forum · 2025Article
- Inflation reduction act impact on pharmaceutical investment: insights from investor interviews.Health affairs scholar · 2025Article
- Advanced Materials-Based Nanofiltration Membranes for Efficient Removal of Organic Micropollutants in Water and Wastewater Treatment.Membranes · 2025Review
- Surrogate end points in oncology: aligning drug development incentives and patient needs.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2025Article
- The Inflation Reduction Act and Drug Development: Potential Early Signals of Impact on Post-Approval Clinical Trials.Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science · 2025Article
- Quantitative analysis of new drug registration policies for traditional Chinese medicine using the PMC index model.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Assessing the feasibility and likelihood of policy options to lower specialty drug costs.Health affairs scholar · 2024Article
- Quantitative evaluation of the medicine innovation policy in China: based on the PMC-Index model.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate lower prices for some medicines with high Medicare spending. Using historical data from public and proprietary sources to apply the IRA's negotiation criteria retrospectively, we identify all drugs that met the eligibility criteria from 2012 to 2021 to classify drugs that would have had a negotiated price in effect in 2022 and to calculate associated decreases in industry revenues. Our results suggest that the IRA's reduction in overall industry revenue will be modest, will not affect most top-selling drugs and will not likely result in large-scale defunding of research and development. Changes in the net present value of drug-development projects will be concentrated in medicines where Medicare is a notable purchaser and where the ratio between expected revenue and development costs was only marginally positive before the IRA. Policymakers considering narrowing or expanding the scope of Medicare negotiation should carefully consider the tradeoffs across medicines with diverse characteristics.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.