ArticlePLOS global public health2024
Is Brazil reaching malaria elimination? A time series analysis of malaria cases from 2011 to 2023.
Article in PLOS global public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- Malaria burden across 126 tropical countries and territories, 1990-2021: tropical-climate share, sociodemographic correlates, population dynamics, and projections to 2050.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Climate change and Plasmodium vivax Malaria Risk in Brazil: Developing adaptive tool for Brazilian Municipalities.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Emergence of artemisinin-based combination therapy resistance markers inAntimicrobial agents and chemotherapy · 2026Article
- The Source-Sink Dynamics of Plasmodium vivax May Undermine Malaria Elimination Efforts in the Amazon: An Epidemiological and Population Genomic Study.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Cytokine signatures associated with persistent antibody responses to multipleFrontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- What impact did the Brazilian Federal Government's intervention have on malaria cases in the Yanomami Indigenous lands?Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Practicability of a malaria rapid diagnostic self-test among artisanal gold miners in French Guiana: a cross-sectional study.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria transmission in the state of Pará, Brazil.Malaria journal · 2025Observational
- Towards Malaria Elimination: A Nationwide Case-Control Study to Assess Risk Factors for Severe Malaria-Related Deaths in Brazil.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2025Article
- First detection of Nyssorhynchus rondoniensis (Diptera: Culicidae) in southern Venezuela and its infection with Plasmodium falciparum.Acta tropica · 2025Article
- Diagnosing P. simium zoonotic malaria infection in the Rio de Janeiro Atlantic forest, Brazil.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Malaria mortality in Brazil: an age-period cohort study.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Imported malaria in Cabo Verde (2010-2024): Risks to post-elimination stability.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Re-emergence of Oropouche virus as a novel global threat.Current research in microbial sciences · 2025Review
- Towards malaria elimination: a case-control study to assess associated factors to malaria relapses in the extra-Amazon Region of Brazil from 2008 to 2019.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Towards malaria elimination: a reflection about digital notification modules to improve malaria cases notification speed and follow-up in the Brazilian Amazon region.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Investigating the Yanomami malaria outbreak puzzle: surge in mining during Bolsonaro's government triggered peak in malaria burden.Research square · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal analysis of within-country imported malaria in Brazilian municipalities, 2004-2022.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Malaria in areas under mining activity in the Amazon: A review.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases occur in the Amazon region, mainly caused by Plasmodium vivax (~83%) and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) species. Aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, Brazil aims to eliminate autochthonous malaria by 2035. This study aims to analyse epidemiological patterns of malaria in Brazil to discuss if Brazil is on track to meet malaria control targets. A time-series study was conducted analysing autochthonous malaria new infections notifications in the Brazilian Amazon region from 2011 until June 2023. Descriptive analyses were conducted, along with joinpoint regression and forecast models to verify trend and future behaviour. A total of 2,067,030 malaria cases were reported in the period. Trend analysis indicated a decreasing trend in all malaria infections since late 2017 (monthly reduction = 0.81%, p-value <0.05), while Pf infections have increased progressively since 2015 (monthly increase = 0.46%, p-value <0.05). Forecast models predict over 124,000 malaria cases in 2023 and over 96,000 cases in 2024. Predictions for Pf infections are around 23,900 cases in 2023 and 22,300 in 2024. Cases in indigenous population villages are predicted to reach 48,000 cases in 2023 and over 51,000 in 2024. In gold mining areas it is expected over 21,000 cases in 2023 and over 20.000 in 2024. Malaria elimination in Brazil has advanced over the last decade, but its speed has slowed. The country exhibits noteworthy advancements in the reduction of overall malaria cases. It is imperative, however, to proactively target specific issues such as the incidence raise among indigenous populations and in gold mining areas. Pf infections remain a persistent challenge to control in the country and may require novel measures for containment. Current government supporting actions towards combating illegal goldmining activities and protecting indigenous populations may help malaria control indicators for the following years.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.