ArticlePloS one2024
Impact of COVID-19 pandemic in the Brazilian maternal mortality ratio: A comparative analysis of Neural Networks Autoregression, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Persistent subnational disparities in the recovery of maternal mortality magnitude in Brazil after the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2026Article
- Binational Analysis of Maternal Mortality Between Brazil and Portugal in 2020-2023: A Population-Based Epidemiological Study.Nursing reports (Pavia, Italy) · 2026Article
- Enhancing Winters exponential smoothing: a novel approach with back-casting, Grey Wolf Optimization, and error tracking.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Factors Associated with Maternal Mortality from COVID-19 in Pernambuco, Brazil (2020-2021): A Case-Control Study.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Modeling the seasonal epidemic of human brucellosis in China: A comparative time series analysis.PloS one · 2026Article
- Trends and spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in China: a surveillance study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Time series analysis of urethral obstruction in male cats in a veterinary teaching hospital in São paulo, Brazil.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Time series analysis of comprehensive maternal deaths in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Spatial and temporal analysis and forecasting of TB reported incidence in western China.BMC public health · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
objectivesThe acute respiratory infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in increased mortality among pregnant, puerperal, and neonates. Brazil has the highest number of maternal deaths and a distressing fatality rate of 7.2%, more than double the country's current mortality rate of 2.8%. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian Maternal Mortality Ratio (BMMR) and forecasts the BMMR up to 2025.
methodsTo assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the BMMR, we employed Holt-Winters, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Neural Networks Autoregression (NNA). We utilized a retrospective time series spanning twenty-five years (1996-2021) to forecast the BMMR under both a COVID-19 pandemic scenario and a controlled COVID-19 scenario.
resultsBrazil consistently exhibited high maternal mortality values (mean BMMR [1996-2019] = 57.99 ±6.34/100,000 live births) according to World Health Organization criteria. The country experienced its highest mortality peak in the historical BMMR series in the second quarter of 2021 (197.75/100,000 live births), representing a more than 200% increase compared to the previous period. Holt-Winter and ARIMA models demonstrated better agreement with prediction results beyond the sample data, although NNA provided a better fit to previous data.
conclusionsOur study revealed an increase in BMMR and its temporal correlation with COVID-19 incidence. Additionally, it showed that Holt-Winter and ARIMA models can be employed for BMMR forecasting with lower errors. This information can assist governments and public health agencies in making timely and informed decisions.
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