Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38290560›Full record

ReviewJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2024

Implementing measurement error models with mechanistic mathematical models in a likelihood-based framework for estimation, identifiability analysis and prediction in the life sciences.

Ryan J Murphy, Oliver J Maclaren, Matthew J Simpson

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Ryan J MurphySchool of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-9844-6734
Oliver J MaclarenDepartment of Engineering Science and Biomedical Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0002-3982-4539
Matthew J SimpsonMathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-6254-313X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Throughout the life sciences, we routinely seek to interpret measurements and observations using parametrized mechanistic mathematical models. A fundamental and often overlooked choice in this approach involves relating the solution of a mathematical model with noisy and incomplete measurement data. This is often achieved by assuming that the data are noisy measurements of the solution of a deterministic mathematical model, and that measurement errors are additive and normally distributed. While this assumption of additive Gaussian noise is extremely common and simple to implement and interpret, it is often unjustified and can lead to poor parameter estimates and non-physical predictions. One way to overcome this challenge is to implement a different measurement error model. In this review, we demonstrate how to implement a range of measurement error models in a likelihood-based framework for estimation, identifiability analysis and prediction, called profile-wise analysis. This frequentist approach to uncertainty quantification for mechanistic models leverages the profile likelihood for targeting parameters and understanding their influence on predictions. Case studies, motivated by simple caricature models routinely used in systems biology and mathematical biology literature, illustrate how the same ideas apply to different types of mathematical models. Open-source Julia code to reproduce results is available on GitHub.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalSystems BiologyLikelihood FunctionsUncertaintymathematical biologyordinary differential equationspartial differential equationspractical identifiabilityprofile likelihood analysissystems biology

Identifiers

PMID38290560
PMCPMC10827430

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.