The non-linear link between non-high-density lipoprotein to high-density lipoprotein ratio and the risk of stroke in middle-aged and older adults in Chinese: a prospective cohort study from the China health and retirement longitudinal study.

Objective: This study aims to assess the association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke risk among middle-aged and older adults participating in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Methods: This study conducted a prospective cohort analysis, enrolling a total of 10,183 participants who met the designated criteria from CHARLS between 2011 and 2012. We then used the Cox proportional-hazards regression model to explore the relationship between baseline non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke risk. Using a Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline function, we were able to identify the non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke occurrence. A series of sensitivity analyses were also carried out. Results: The average age of the participants included in this study was 59.16 ± 9.35 years, and 4,735 individuals (46.68%) were male. Over a median follow-up period of 7.0 years, a total of 1,191 people (11.70%) experienced a stroke. Using a Cox proportional hazards regression model that was fully adjusted, we found no statistically significant correlation between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the risk of stroke (HR=1.022; 95% CI 0.964, 1.083). Nevertheless, we did observe a non-linear relationship and saturation effect between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke. Employing a two-piece Cox proportional hazards regression model and a recursive algorithm, we determined an inflection point of 2.685 for the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio. In instances where the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio fell below 2.685, for every 1-unit decrease in the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio, the likelihood of stroke decreased by 21.4% (HR=1.214, 95% CI: 1.039-1.418). In contrast, when the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio exceeded 2.685, there was no statistically significant change in the risk of stroke for each unit decrease in the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio (HR: 0.967, 95% CI: 0.897-1.042). The consistency of these findings across multiple sensitivity analyses suggests their robustness. Conclusion: This study unveils a non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and stroke risk in middle-aged and older adults in China. Specifically, when the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio was below 2.685, a significant and clearly positive association with stroke risk was observed. Additionally, maintaining the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio below 2.685 could potentially lead to a substantial reduction in the risk of stroke.