Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38280881›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa.

Shen Yuan, Kazuki Saito, Pepijn A J van Oort, Martin K van Ittersum, Shaobing Peng, Patricio Grassini

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Eliminating hunger in a world serious about climate mitigation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Sustainable high-yield farming is essential for bending the curve of biodiversity loss.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025
    Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Shen YuanNational Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, Hubei Hongshan Laboratory, MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430070, China.ORCID 0000-0003-4786-145X
Kazuki SaitoAfrica Rice Center (AfricaRice), 01 B.P. 2551, Bouaké 01, Côte d'Ivoire.ORCID 0000-0002-8609-2713
Pepijn A J van OortWagfnoveningen Plant Research, Agrosystems Research, P.O. Box 16, 6700 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Martin K van IttersumPlant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 430, NL-6700 AK, Wageningen, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-8611-6781
Shaobing PengNational Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, Hubei Hongshan Laboratory, MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430070, China. speng@mail.hzau.edu.cn.ORCID 0000-0003-1696-9409
Patricio GrassiniDepartment of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0915, USA. pgrassini2@unl.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-7501-842X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Africa produces around 60% of the rice the continent consumes, relying heavily on rice imports to fulfill the rest of the domestic demand. Over the past 10 years, the rice-agricultural area increased nearly 40%, while average yield remained stagnant. Here we used a process-based crop simulation modelling approach combined with local weather, soil, and management datasets to evaluate the potential to increase rice production on existing cropland area in Africa and assess cropland expansion and rice imports by year 2050 for different scenarios of yield intensification. We find that Africa can avoid further increases in rice imports, and even reduce them, through a combination of cropland expansion following the historical trend together with closure of the current exploitable yield gap by half or more. Without substantial increase in rice yields, meeting future rice demand will require larger rice imports and/or land conversion than now.

Indexed as

OryzaAfricaAgricultureSoilSoil

Identifiers

PMID38280881
PMCPMC10821910

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.