Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38280878›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability.

Wenchang Yang, Elizabeth Wallace, Gabriel A Vecchi, Jeffrey P Donnelly, Julien Emile-Geay, Gregory J Hakim, Larry W Horowitz, Richard M Sullivan, Robert Tardif, Peter J van Hengstum and 1 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Wenchang YangDepartment of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. wenchang@princeton.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0053-9527
Elizabeth WallaceDepartment of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA.
Gabriel A VecchiDepartment of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5085-224X
Jeffrey P DonnellyDepartment of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Falmouth, MA, USA.
Julien Emile-GeayDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5920-4751
Gregory J HakimDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8486-9739
Larry W HorowitzGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5886-3314
Richard M SullivanDepartment of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA.
Robert TardifDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1313-0878
Peter J van HengstumDepartment of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1125-2858
Tyler S WinklerDepartment of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Falmouth, MA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability.

Identifiers

PMID38280878
PMCPMC10821936

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.