ArticleScience advances2024
Historical and future maximum sea surface temperatures.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Copper and Temperature Interactions Induce Differential Physiological and Metal Exclusion Responses in the Model Brown MacroalgaPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Extreme compound events in the equatorial and South Atlantic.Nature communications · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Marine heat waves affect ocean ecosystems and are expected to become more frequent and intense. Earth system models' ability to reproduce extreme ocean temperature statistics has not been tested quantitatively, making the reliability of their future projections of marine heat waves uncertain. We demonstrate that annual maxima of detrended anomalies in daily mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over 39 years of global satellite observations are described excellently by the generalized extreme value distribution. If models can reproduce the observed distribution of SST extremes, this increases confidence in their marine heat wave projections. 14 CMIP6 models' historical realizations reproduce the satellite-based distribution and its parameters' spatial patterns. We find that maximum ocean temperatures will become warmer (by 1.07° ± 0.17°C under 2°C warming and 2.04° ± 0.18°C under 3.2°C warming). These changes are mainly due to mean SST increases, slightly reinforced by SST seasonality increases. Our study quantifies ocean temperature extremes and gives confidence to model projections of marine heat waves.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.