ArticlePloS one2024
Application of elastic net regression for modeling COVID-19 sociodemographic risk factors.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Machine learning driven identification of optimal nanomaterials for efficient pararosaniline dye removal from water using a RFHGB hybrid model.RSC advances · 2026Article
- Frequency Ranking of Imaging Biomarkers for Lung Cancer Risk Stratification Using a Hybrid Elastic Net Method.Cancers · 2026Article
- Analysis of risk factors for recurrence of Budd-Chiari syndrome: A retrospective study with zero-inflated model.Medicine · 2025Observational
- Optic disc morphometrics as a potential ocular biomarker for depression: evidence from two cross-sectional cohort studies.Translational psychiatry · 2025Article
- Using Machine Learning to Predict Weight Gain in Adults: an Observational Analysis From the All of Us Research Program.The Journal of surgical research · 2025Observational
- An elastic net regression model for predicting the risk of ICU admission and death for hospitalized patients with COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Automated Machine Learning Analysis of Patients With Chronic Skin Disease Using a Medical Smartphone App: Retrospective Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2023Article
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Abstract
objectivesCOVID-19 has been at the forefront of global concern since its emergence in December of 2019. Determining the social factors that drive case incidence is paramount to mitigating disease spread. We gathered data from the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) along with Democratic voting percentage to attempt to understand which county-level sociodemographic metrics had a significant correlation with case rate for COVID-19.
methodsWe used elastic net regression due to issues with variable collinearity and model overfitting. Our modelling framework included using the ten Health and Human Services regions as submodels for the two time periods 22 March 2020 to 15 June 2021 (prior to the Delta time period) and 15 June 2021 to 1 November 2021 (the Delta time period).
resultsStatistically, elastic net improved prediction when compared to multiple regression, as almost every HHS model consistently had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and satisfactory R2 coefficients. These analyses show that the percentage of minorities, disabled individuals, individuals living in group quarters, and individuals who voted Democratic correlated significantly with COVID-19 attack rate as determined by Variable Importance Plots (VIPs).
conclusionsThe percentage of minorities per county correlated positively with cases in the earlier time period and negatively in the later time period, which complements previous research. In contrast, higher percentages of disabled individuals per county correlated negatively in the earlier time period. Counties with an above average percentage of group quarters experienced a high attack rate early which then diminished in significance after the primary vaccine rollout. Higher Democratic voting consistently correlated negatively with cases, coinciding with previous findings regarding a partisan divide in COVID-19 cases at the county level. Our findings can assist regional policymakers in distributing resources to more vulnerable counties in future pandemics based on SVI.
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