Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38273123›Full record

ArticleNature ecology & evolution2024

Variation in temperature of peak trait performance constrains adaptation of arthropod populations to climatic warming.

Samraat Pawar, Paul J Huxley, Thomas R C Smallwood, Miles L Nesbit, Alex H H Chan, Marta S Shocket, Leah R Johnson, Dimitrios -Georgios Kontopoulos, Lauren J Cator

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Humidity shapes the thermal niche ofbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. PeerJ · 2026
    Article
  8. Toward a general understanding of thermal performance curves in biology.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Founders predict trait evolution and population performance after evolutionary rescue in the red flour beetle.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Samraat PawarDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK. s.pawar@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8375-5684
Paul J HuxleyDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK. phuxly@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9211-9479
Thomas R C SmallwoodDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Miles L NesbitDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK.
Alex H H ChanDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5405-7155
Marta S ShocketDepartment of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Leah R JohnsonDepartment of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
Dimitrios -Georgios KontopoulosLOEWE Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics and Senckenberg Research Institute, Frankfurt, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5082-1929
Lauren J CatorDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK. l.cator@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6627-1490

Funding

US-UK Collab: RCN: Vector Behavior in Transmission Ecology (VectorBiTE)R01AI122284 · NIAID · VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INST AND ST UNIV · PI JOHNSON, LEAH RENEE · 2015 to 2019
$520k
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI122284
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The capacity of arthropod populations to adapt to long-term climatic warming is currently uncertain. Here we combine theory and extensive data to show that the rate of their thermal adaptation to climatic warming will be constrained in two fundamental ways. First, the rate of thermal adaptation of an arthropod population is predicted to be limited by changes in the temperatures at which the performance of four key life-history traits can peak, in a specific order of declining importance: juvenile development, adult fecundity, juvenile mortality and adult mortality. Second, directional thermal adaptation is constrained due to differences in the temperature of the peak performance of these four traits, with these differences expected to persist because of energetic allocation and life-history trade-offs. We compile a new global dataset of 61 diverse arthropod species which provides strong empirical evidence to support these predictions, demonstrating that contemporary populations have indeed evolved under these constraints. Our results provide a basis for using relatively feasible trait measurements to predict the adaptive capacity of diverse arthropod populations to geographic temperature gradients, as well as ongoing and future climatic warming.

Indexed as

ArthropodsLife History TraitsAcclimatizationAnimalsPhenotypeTemperature

Identifiers

PMID38273123
PMCPMC10927549

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.