A quasi-experimental study to estimate effectiveness of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Aweil South County in Northern Bahr El Ghazal, South Sudan.

backgroundSeasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is an effective intervention to prevent malaria in children in locations where the burden of malaria is high and transmission is seasonal. There is growing evidence suggesting that SMC with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine can retain its high level of effectiveness in East and Southern Africa despite resistance concerns. This study aims to generate evidence on the effectiveness of SMC when delivered under programmatic conditions in an area with an unknown anti-malarial drug resistance profile in the Northern Bahr el-Ghazal region of South Sudan.

methodsA non-randomized quasi experimental study was conducted to compare an intervention county with a control county. Five monthly SMC cycles were delivered between July and November 2022, targeting about 19,000 children 3-59 months old. Data were obtained from repeated cross-sectional household surveys of caregivers of children aged 3-59 months using cluster sampling. Wave 1 survey took place in both counties before SMC implementation; Waves 2 and 3 took place after the second and fourth monthly SMC cycles. Difference-in-differences analyses were performed by fitting logistic regression models with interactions between county and wave.

resultsA total of 2760 children were sampled in the study across the three survey waves in both study counties. Children in the intervention arm had 70% lower odds of caregiver-reported fever relative to those in the control arm during the one-month period prior to Wave 2 (OR: 0.30, 95% CI 0.12-0.70, p = 0.003), and 37% lower odds in Wave 3 (OR: 0.63, 95% CI 0.22-1.59, p = 0.306) after controlling for baseline difference between counties in Wave 1. Odds of caregiver-reported RDT-confirmed malaria were 82% lower in the previous 1-month period prior to Wave 2 (OR: 0.18, 95% CI 0.07-0.49, p = 0.001) and Wave 3 (OR: 0.18, 95% CI 0.06-0.54, p = 0.003).

conclusionThese results show high effectiveness of SMC using SPAQ in terms of reducing malaria disease during the high transmission season in children 3-59 month. Despite the promising results, additional evidence and insights from chemoprevention efficacy cohort studies, and analyses of relevant resistance markers, are required to assess the suitability of SMC for this specific context.