Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38267405›Full record

ArticleTranslational psychiatry2024

Prediction models for postoperative delirium in elderly patients with machine-learning algorithms and SHapley Additive exPlanations.

Yuxiang Song, Di Zhang, Qian Wang, Yuqing Liu, Kunsha Chen, Jingjia Sun, Likai Shi, Baowei Li, Xiaodong Yang, Weidong Mi and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Translational psychiatry, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
47citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

47 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Yuxiang Song *Department of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Di Zhang *Department of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Qian Wang *Department of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Yuqing LiuDepartment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Kunsha ChenDepartment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Jingjia SunDepartment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Likai ShiDepartment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Baowei LiDepartment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Xiaodong YangInstitute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Weidong MiDepartment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China. wwdd1962@aliyun.com.
Jiangbei CaoDepartment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China. caojiangbei@301hospital.com.cn.ORCID 0000-0003-1218-4639

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and severe complication in elderly patients with hip fractures. Identifying high-risk patients with POD can help improve the outcome of patients with hip fractures. We conducted a retrospective study on elderly patients (≥65 years of age) who underwent orthopedic surgery with hip fracture between January 2014 and August 2019. Conventional logistic regression and five machine-learning algorithms were used to construct prediction models of POD. A nomogram for POD prediction was built with the logistic regression method. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), accuracy, sensitivity, and precision were calculated to evaluate different models. Feature importance of individuals was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). About 797 patients were enrolled in the study, with the incidence of POD at 9.28% (74/797). The age, renal insufficiency, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), use of antipsychotics, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and C-reactive protein are used to build a nomogram for POD with an AUC of 0.71. The AUCs of five machine-learning models are 0.81 (Random Forest), 0.80 (GBM), 0.68 (AdaBoost), 0.77 (XGBoost), and 0.70 (SVM). The sensitivities of the six models range from 68.8% (logistic regression and SVM) to 91.9% (Random Forest). The precisions of the six machine-learning models range from 18.3% (logistic regression) to 67.8% (SVM). Six prediction models of POD in patients with hip fractures were constructed using logistic regression and five machine-learning algorithms. The application of machine-learning algorithms could provide convenient POD risk stratification to benefit elderly hip fracture patients.

Indexed as

Emergence DeliriumHip FracturesAgedAlgorithmsHumansMachine LearningRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID38267405
PMCPMC10808214

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.