ArticleIJID regions2024
Identify future epidemic threshold and intensity for influenza-like illness in Iraq by using the moving epidemic method.
Article in IJID regions, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance to identify the Start of Influenza Seasons in New South Wales, Australia.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance Diagnostic Code Selection for Assessing Severity of Seasonal Influenza in New South Wales, Australia.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Wastewater-based surveillance and early warning-forecasting framework for norovirus: a two-year longitudinal study in Shenzhen, China.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Article
- Application of the moving epidemic method for influenza surveillance in Kunming.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Objectives: Influenza-like illness (ILI) entered the Iraq surveillance system in 2021. The alert threshold was determined using the cumulative sum 2 method, which did not provide other characteristics. This study uses the moving epidemic method (MEM) to describe duration and estimate alert thresholds for ILI in Iraq for 2023-2024. Methods: MEM default package was used to estimate influenza 2023-2024 epidemic thresholds. Analysis was repeated using optimum parameter of epidemic timing for fixed criteria method, which is 3.3. Arithmetic means and 95% confidence interval upper limit were used to estimate threshold. Geometric mean and 40%, 90%, and 97.3% confidence interval upper limits were used to estimate intensity levels. Aggregated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data were used to detect epidemic thresholds, length, sensitivity, and predictive values. Results: ILI activity starts at week 30 and lasts 7 weeks. Optimized epidemic threshold is 4513 cases, lower than default (4540 cases). Optimized medium-intensity level was higher than default, and high and very high-intensity levels were lower. Conclusions: MEM is essential to determine an influenza epidemic's threshold and intensity levels. Despite requiring 3-5 years of data, using it on data for 2.5 years has resulted in an epidemic threshold slightly higher than the threshold calculated using the cumulative sum 2 method.
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