ArticleFrontiers in public health2023
A semi-empirical risk panel to monitor epidemics: multi-faceted tool to assist healthcare and public health professionals.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Real-time prediction of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics in primary care using the Gompertz model.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- How to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics? Application of the Moving Epidemic Method in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France from 2017 to 2023.BMC public health · 2025Article
- From COVID-19 to monkeypox: a novel predictive model for emerging infectious diseases.BioData mining · 2024Article
- Country-report pattern corrections of new cases allow accurate 2-week predictions of COVID-19 evolution with the Gompertz model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Introduction: Bronchiolitis, mostly caused by Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), and influenza among other respiratory infections, lead to seasonal saturation at healthcare centers in temperate areas. There is no gold standard to characterize the stages of epidemics, nor the risk of respiratory infections growing. We aimed to define a set of indicators to assess the risk level of respiratory viral epidemics, based on both incidence and their short-term dynamics, and considering epidemical thresholds. Methods: We used publicly available data on daily cases of influenza for the whole population and bronchiolitis in children <2 years from the Information System for Infection Surveillance in Catalonia (SIVIC). We included a Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) variation to define epidemic threshold and levels. We pre-processed the data with two different Results: Our adaptation of the MEM method allowed us to define epidemic weekly incidence levels and epidemic thresholds for bronchiolitis and influenza. EPG was able to anticipate daily 7-day cumulative incidence by 4-5 (bronchiolitis) or 6-7 (influenza) days. Discussion: We developed a semi-empirical risk panel incorporating the EPG index, which effectively anticipates surpassing epidemic thresholds for bronchiolitis and influenza. This panel could serve as a robust surveillance tool, applicable to respiratory infectious diseases characterized by seasonal epidemics, easy to handle for individuals lacking a mathematical background.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.