Frailty Trajectories in Chinese Older Adults: Evidence From the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

Background and Objectives: The individual heterogeneity in the progression of frailty has not been fully disclosed. Studies on frailty trajectories in Chinese older adults are rare and lack evidence suggesting that the frailty trajectories follow similar patterns to those in other countries. This study aims to identify distinct frailty trajectories in a nationwide cohort of community-dwelling older adults in China and explore the relationship between demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors, and frailty trajectories. Research Design and Methods: We included an analytical sample of 8,993 individuals aged 50 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. We used group-based trajectory models to identify patterns of frailty trajectories over time. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the relationship between demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors, and group membership. Results: Three frailty trajectories were identified: "Low and stable trajectory" (56.8% of the respondents), "Moderate and increasing trajectory" (34.4%), and "High and increasing trajectory" (8.8%). Older age (odds ratio [OR] = 7.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.90-9.20), being female (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.42-2.27), no formal education (OR = 4.91, 95% CI: 2.33-10.36), living in rural areas (OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.01-1.47), low level of physical activity (OR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.94-3.62), and residing in Northeast China (OR = 3.53, 95% CI: 2.56-4.88) were associated with the rapid progression of frailty, whereas moderate alcohol consumption appears to be associated with low and stable frailty trajectory (OR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.35-0.58). Discussion and Implications: The findings of the study emphasize a significant number of older adults with moderate and increasing as well as high and increasing frailty trajectories in China, which is cause for concern.