Machine Learning Models of Polygenic Risk for Enhanced Prediction of Alzheimer Disease Endophenotypes.

Background and Objectives: Alzheimer disease (AD) has a polygenic architecture, for which genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have helped elucidate sequence variants (SVs) influencing susceptibility. Polygenic risk score (PRS) approaches show promise for generating summary measures of inherited risk for clinical AD based on the effects of Methods: We analyzed combined data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (n = 1,791) and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (n = 864). An AD PRS was computed for each participant using the top common SVs obtained from a large AD dementia GWAS. In parallel, ML models were trained using those SV genotypes, with amyloid PET burden as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included amyloid PET positivity and clinical diagnosis (cognitively unimpaired vs impaired). We compared performance between ML-PRS and standard PRS across 100 training sessions with different data splits. In each session, data were split into 80% training and 20% testing, and then five-fold cross-validation was used within the training set to ensure the best model was produced for testing. We also applied permutation importance techniques to assess which genetic factors contributed most to outcome prediction. Results: ML-PRS models outperformed the AD PRS ( Discussion: We found that ML-PRS approaches improved upon standard PRS for prediction of AD endophenotypes, partly related to improved accounting for nonlinear effects of genetic susceptibility alleles. Further adaptations of the ML-PRS framework could help to close the gap of remaining unexplained heritability for AD and therefore facilitate more accurate presymptomatic and early-stage risk stratification for clinical decision-making.