Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38238368›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2024

Equilibrium points and their stability of COVID-19 in US.

Xiaoxi Hu, Zixin Hu, Tao Xu, Kai Zhang, Henry H Lu, Jinying Zhao, Eric Boerwinkle, Li Jin, Momiao Xiong

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Xiaoxi Hu *State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Innovation Center of Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Zixin Hu *State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Innovation Center of Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Tao XuDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
Kai ZhangDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, Rensselaer, NY, 12144, USA.
Henry H LuBeiGene, Cambridge, MA, 02141, USA.
Jinying ZhaoDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
Eric BoerwinkleSchool of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, 77030, USA.
Li JinState Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Innovation Center of Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Momiao XiongDepartment of Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, P.O. Box 20186, Houston, TX, 77030, USA. momiao.xiong@gmail.com.

Funding

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China 2021YFC2302500National Natural Science Foundation of China 3210040426Shanghai Rising-Star Program 21QB1400900
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study aims to develop an advanced mathematic model and investigate when and how will the COVID-19 in the US be evolved to endemic. We employed a nonlinear ordinary differential equations-based model to simulate COVID-19 transmission dynamics, factoring in vaccination efforts. Multi-stability analysis was performed on daily new infection data from January 12, 2021 to December 12, 2022 across 50 states in the US. Key indices such as eigenvalues and the basic reproduction number were utilized to evaluate stability and investigate how the pandemic COVD-19 will evolve to endemic in the US. The transmissional, recovery, vaccination rates, vaccination effectiveness, eigenvalues and reproduction numbers ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) in the endemic equilibrium point were estimated. The stability attractor regions for these parameters were identified and ranked. Our multi-stability analysis revealed that while the endemic equilibrium points in the 50 states remain unstable, there is a significant trend towards stable endemicity in the US. The study's stability analysis, coupled with observed epidemiological waves in the US, suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic may not conclude with the virus's eradication. Nevertheless, the virus is gradually becoming endemic. Effectively strategizing vaccine distribution is pivotal for this transition.

Indexed as

COVID-19HumansModels, TheoreticalNonlinear DynamicsPandemics

Identifiers

PMID38238368
PMCPMC10796349

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.