ArticleNature communications2024
Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal epidemiology of influenza in Fujian Province: an 18-year observational study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Observational
- Multiplex serology reveals age-specific immunodynamics of respiratory pathogens in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Dynamic network entropy for pinpointing the pre-outbreak stage of infectious disease.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Multiplex serology reveals age-specific immunodynamics of endemic respiratory pathogens in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- COVID-19 pandemic interventions reshaped the global dispersal of seasonal influenza viruses.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2024Article
- Commuting-driven competition between transmission chains shapes seasonal influenza virus epidemics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Using an influenza epidemic threshold different from those in the United States and Europe caused longer epidemic periods in Korea during the 2018-2019, 2019-2020, and 2022-2023 seasons: a comparative study.Ewha medical journal · 2024Article
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Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.
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