ArticlePLOS global public health2024
Airborne transmission risks of tuberculosis and COVID-19 in schools in South Africa, Switzerland, and Tanzania: Modeling of environmental data.
Article in PLOS global public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Infection prevention and control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic and airborne tuberculosis transmission during primary care visits in South Africa.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025Article
- Social contact patterns and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Estimating Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in a South African clinic: Spatiotemporal model based on person movements.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Occupational exposure monitoring of airborne respiratory viruses in outpatient medical clinics.Aerosol science and technology : the journal of the American Association for Aerosol Research · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic renewed interest in airborne transmission of respiratory infections, particularly in congregate indoor settings, such as schools. We modeled transmission risks of tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mtb) and COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2) in South African, Swiss and Tanzanian secondary schools. We estimated the risks of infection with the Wells-Riley equation, expressed as the median with 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles (credible interval [CrI]), based on the ventilation rate and the duration of exposure to infectious doses (so-called quanta). We computed the air change rate (ventilation) using carbon dioxide (CO2) as a tracer gas and modeled the quanta generation rate based on reported estimates from the literature. The share of infectious students in the classroom is determined by country-specific estimates of pulmonary TB. For SARS-CoV-2, the number of infectious students was estimated based on excess mortality to mitigate the bias from country-specific reporting and testing. Average CO2 concentration (parts per million [ppm]) was 1,610 ppm in South Africa, 1,757 ppm in Switzerland, and 648 ppm in Tanzania. The annual risk of infection for Mtb was 22.1% (interquartile range [IQR] 2.7%-89.5%) in South Africa, 0.7% (IQR 0.1%-6.4%) in Switzerland, and 0.5% (IQR 0.0%-3.9%) in Tanzania. For SARS-CoV-2, the monthly risk of infection was 6.8% (IQR 0.8%-43.8%) in South Africa, 1.2% (IQR 0.1%-8.8%) in Switzerland, and 0.9% (IQR 0.1%-6.6%) in Tanzania. The differences in transmission risks primarily reflect a higher incidence of SARS-CoV-2 and particularly prevalence of TB in South Africa, but also higher air change rates due to better natural ventilation of the classrooms in Tanzania. Global comparisons of the modeled risk of infectious disease transmission in classrooms can provide high-level information for policy-making regarding appropriate infection control strategies.
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Registered trials
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