ArticleNPJ breast cancer2024
An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model including the benefits and harms of radiotherapy.
Article in NPJ breast cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Treatment decision-making and quality of life versus length of life preferences of older patients with early stage cancer: A systematic review.Journal of geriatric oncology · 2025Pooled it
- Prognostic and predictive performance of PREDICT 2.1, PREDICT v3, and RSClin in node-negative early breast cancer: a TEAM pathology substudy.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2026Trial
- Artificial intelligence and person-centred practice: a critical reflection.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Review
- External validation of PREDICT Breast v3.1 for overall survival in international cohorts, including young and invasive lobular subgroups.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2026Article
- Transfer Learning and Machine Learning for Training Five-Year Survival Prognostic Models in Early Breast Cancer: Development and Validation Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- PREDICT v3.0 outperforms v2.2 in young (25-40 years) breast cancer patients according to real-world data from a large Swedish population-based registry.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2026Article
- Validation of the postoperative prognostication tool PREDICT version 2.2 and 3.0 using data from the National cancer center hospital in Japan.Breast cancer (Tokyo, Japan) · 2026Article
- Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Distant Recurrence Risk and Ribociclib Treatment Effect in HR+/HER2- Early Breast Cancer Using Real-World and NATALEE Data.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2026Article
- Validation of PREDICT tool v2.2 in patients with early-stage breast cancer enrolled in the GIM and MIG trials.ESMO open · 2026Article
- Using the cancer aging and research group- breast cancer (CARG-BC) predictive model in older adults (OA) with early breast cancer: an external validation study.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
- PREDICT breast v4.0: an update to the PREDICT breast prognostic model.BMC research notes · 2025Article
- Quantifying the Influence of Psychosocial Characteristics, Supportive Care Needs and Quality of Life on Breast Cancer Survival.Psycho-oncology · 2025Article
- Insights into the performance of PREDICT tool in a large Mainland Chinese breast cancer cohort: a comparative analysis of versions 3.0 and 2.2.The oncologist · 2024Article
- Multiple metastases of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2‑positive, hormone receptor‑positive, pT1a pN0 breast cancer within 1 year after surgery: A case report.Oncology letters · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
PREDICT Breast ( www.breast .predict.nhs.uk ) is a prognostication tool for early invasive breast cancer. The current version was based on cases diagnosed in 1999-2003 and did not incorporate the benefits of radiotherapy or the harms associated with therapy. Since then, there has been a substantial improvement in the outcomes for breast cancer cases. The aim of this study was to update PREDICT Breast to ensure that the underlying model is appropriate for contemporary patients. Data from the England National Cancer Registration and Advisory Service for invasive breast cancer cases diagnosed 2000-17 were used for model development and validation. Model development was based on 35,474 cases diagnosed and registered by the Eastern Cancer Registry. A Cox model was used to estimate the prognostic effects of the year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, tumour size, tumour grade and number of positive nodes. Separate models were developed for ER-positive and ER-negative disease. Data on 32,408 cases from the West Midlands Cancer Registry and 100,551 cases from other cancer registries were used for validation. The new model was well-calibrated; predicted breast cancer deaths at 5-, 10- and 15-year were within 10 per cent of the observed validation data. Discrimination was also good: The AUC for 15-year breast cancer survival was 0.809 in the West Midlands data set and 0.846 in the data set for the other registries. The new PREDICT Breast model outperformed the current model and will be implemented in the online tool which should lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.