Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38217250›Full record

ArticleNature computational science2021

Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Josh C D'Aeth, Shubhechyya Ghosal, Fiona Grimm, David Haw, Esma Koca, Krystal Lau, Stefano Moret, Dheeya Rizmie, Sarah R Deeny, Pablo N Perez-Guzman and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature computational science, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Measuring hospital care resilience: a systematic literature review.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Inpatient Cancer Treatment and Outcomes in the United States.Mayo Clinic proceedings. Innovations, quality & outcomes · 2026
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Josh C D'Aeth *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9636-9886
Shubhechyya Ghosal *Department of Analytics, Marketing and Operations, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6566-1334
Fiona Grimm *The Health Foundation, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5249-619X
David Haw *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Esma Koca *Department of Analytics, Marketing and Operations, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6545-5546
Krystal Lau *Department of Economics and Public Policy, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3295-3979
Stefano Moret *Department of Analytics, Marketing and Operations, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7716-3084
Dheeya Rizmie *Department of Economics and Public Policy, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Sarah R DeenyThe Health Foundation, London, UK.
Pablo N Perez-GuzmanMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Neil FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Katharina HauckMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3138-4169
Peter C SmithDepartment of Economics and Public Policy, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Giovanni ForchiniMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Wolfram WiesemannDepartment of Analytics, Marketing and Operations, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Marisa MiraldoDepartment of Economics and Public Policy, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK. m.miraldo@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5772-7740

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In response to unprecedented surges in the demand for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, health systems have prioritized patients with COVID-19 to life-saving hospital care to the detriment of other patients. In contrast to these ad hoc policies, we develop a linear programming framework to optimally schedule elective procedures and allocate hospital beds among all planned and emergency patients to minimize years of life lost. Leveraging a large dataset of administrative patient medical records, we apply our framework to the National Health Service in England and show that an extra 50,750-5,891,608 years of life can be gained compared with prioritization policies that reflect those implemented during the pandemic. Notable health gains are observed for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries and poisoning. Our open-source framework provides a computationally efficient approximation of a large-scale discrete optimization problem that can be applied globally to support national-level care prioritization policies.

Identifiers

PMID38217250
PMCPMC10766519

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.