Identifying misdiagnosed bipolar disorder using support vector machine: feature selection based on fMRI of follow-up confirmed affective disorders.

Nearly a quarter of bipolar disorder (BD) patients were misdiagnosed as major depressive disorder (MDD) patients, which cannot be corrected until mania/hypomania develops. It is important to recognize these obstacles so that the appropriate treatment can be initiated. Thus, we sought to distinguish patients with BD from MDD, especially to identify misdiagnosed BD before mania/hypomania, and further explore potential trait features that allow accurate differential diagnosis independent of state matters. Functional magnetic resonance imaging scans were performed at baseline on 92 MDD patients and 48 BD patients. The MDD patients were then followed up for more than two years. After follow-up, 23 patients transformed into BD (tBD), and 69 patients whose diagnoses remained unchanged were eligible for unipolar depression (UD). A support vector machine classifier was trained on the amygdala-based functional connectivity (FC) of 48 BD and 50 UD patients using a novel region-based feature selection. Then, the classifier was tested on the dataset, encompassing tBD and the remaining UD. It performed well for known BD and UD and can also distinguish tBD from UD with an accuracy of 81%, sensitivity of 82.6%, specificity of 79%, and AUC of 74.6%, respectively. Feature selection results revealed that ten regions within the cortico-limbic neural circuit contributed most to classification. Furthermore, in the FC comparisons among diseases, BD and tBD shared almost overlapped FC patterns in the cortico-limbic neural circuit, and both of them presented pronounced differences in most regions within the circuit compared with UD. The FC values of the most discriminating brain regions had no prominent correlations with the severity of depression, anxiety, and mania/hypomania (FDR correction). It suggests that BD possesses some trait features in the cortico-limbic neural circuit, rendering it dichotomized by the classifier based on known-diagnosis data.