Simulating long-term wildfire impacts on boreal forest structure in Central Yakutia, Siberia, since the Last Glacial Maximum.

Background: Wildfires are recognized as an important ecological component of larch-dominated boreal forests in eastern Siberia. However, long-term fire-vegetation dynamics in this unique environment are poorly understood. Recent paleoecological research suggests that intensifying fire regimes may induce millennial-scale shifts in forest structure and composition. This may, in turn, result in positive feedback on intensifying wildfires and permafrost degradation, apart from threatening human livelihoods. Most common fire-vegetation models do not explicitly include detailed individual-based tree population dynamics, but a focus on patterns of forest structure emerging from interactions among individual trees may provide a beneficial perspective on the impacts of changing fire regimes in eastern Siberia. To simulate these impacts on forest structure at millennial timescales, we apply the individual-based, spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI-FIRE, expanded with a new fire module. Satellite-based fire observations along with fieldwork data were used to inform the implementation of wildfire occurrence and adjust model parameters. Results: Simulations of annual forest development and wildfire activity at a study site in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) since the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 20,000 years BP) highlight the variable impacts of fire regimes on forest structure throughout time. Modeled annual fire probability and subsequent burned area in the Holocene compare well with a local reconstruction of charcoal influx in lake sediments. Wildfires can be followed by different forest regeneration pathways, depending on fire frequency and intensity and the pre-fire forest conditions. We find that medium-intensity wildfires at fire return intervals of 50 years or more benefit the dominance of fire-resisting Dahurian larch ( Conclusion: With its fine-scale population dynamics, LAVESI-FIRE can serve as a highly localized, spatially explicit tool to understand the long-term impacts of boreal wildfires on forest structure and to better constrain interpretations of paleoecological reconstructions of fire activity. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42408-023-00238-8.