ArticleEpidemics2024
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy.
Article in Epidemics, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Generative diffusion models for spatiotemporal influenza forecasting.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Adaptive multi-model ensembles for improved epidemic projections and decision support.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- A Software Platform for Collaborative Infectious Disease Modeling.Nature health · 2026Article
- Start from the end: Policy exploration to inform effective and consistent interventions applied to COVID-19 in St. Louis.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Assessing the Impact of Timing and Coverage of United States COVID-19 Vaccination Campaigns: A Multi-Model Approach.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- The Decline in Influenza Antibody Titers and Modifiers of Vaccine Immunity from over Ten Years of Serological Data.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Data generation and modeling during COVID-19: utility, barriers, and priorities for future investments in public health response.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Multi-Model Ensembles in Infectious Disease and Public Health: Methods, Interpretation, and Implementation in R.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Clinical progression parameters associated with SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus infections in a large US integrated healthcare population.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Coordinating collaborative infectious disease modeling projects with the hubverse.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Improving policy design and epidemic response using integrated models of economic choice and disease dynamics with behavioral feedback.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Comparison between simulated scenarios and Swedish COVID-19 cases throughout the pandemic.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- When data disappear: public health pays as US policy strays.The Lancet. Digital health · 2025Review
- The utility of infectious disease modelling in informing decisions for outbreak response: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
20 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to guide pandemic planning and decision-making in the context of high uncertainty. This effort was born out of an attempt to coordinate, synthesize and effectively use the unprecedented amount of predictive modeling that emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we describe the history of this massive collective research effort, the process of convening and maintaining an open modeling hub active over multiple years, and attempt to provide a blueprint for future efforts. We detail the process of generating 17 rounds of scenarios and projections at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and disseminating results to the public health community and lay public. We also highlight how SMH was expanded to generate influenza projections during the 2022-23 season. We identify key impacts of SMH results on public health and draw lessons to improve future collaborative modeling efforts, research on scenario projections, and the interface between models and policy.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.