Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38184745›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2024

Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998-2019 and consequences for projections through 2050.

Karl Michaëlsson, John A Baron, Liisa Byberg, Susanna C Larsson, Håkan Melhus, Rolf Gedeborg

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
3.4field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Karl MichaëlssonDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, 751 85, Uppsala, Sweden. karl.michaelsson@surgsci.uu.se.
John A BaronDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, 751 85, Uppsala, Sweden.
Liisa BybergDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, 751 85, Uppsala, Sweden.
Susanna C LarssonDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, 751 85, Uppsala, Sweden.
Håkan MelhusDepartment of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Rolf GedeborgDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, 751 85, Uppsala, Sweden.
Uppsala University · SEKarolinska Institutet · SE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We aimed to estimate the absolute and age-standardized number of hip fractures in Sweden during the past two decades to produce time trends and future projections. We used nationwide register data from 1998 to 2019 and a validated algorithm to calculate the annual absolute and age-standardized number of incident hip fractures over time. The total hip fracture burden was 335,399 incident events over the 22 years, with a change from 16,180 in 1998 to 13,929 in 2019, a 14% decrease. One decade after the index hip fracture event, 80% of the patients had died, and 11% had a new hip fracture. After considering the steady growth of the older population, the decline in the age-standardized number of hip fractures from 1998 through 2019 was 29.2% (95% CI 28.1-30.2%) in women and 29.3% (95% CI 27.5-30.7%) in men. With a continued similar reduction in hip fracture incidence, we can predict that 14,800 hip fractures will occur in 2034 and 12,000 in 2050 despite doubling the oldest old (≥ 80 years). Without an algorithm, a naïve estimate of the total number of hip fractures over the study period was 539,947, with a second 10-year hip fracture risk of 35%. We note an ongoing decline in the absolute and age-standardized actual number of hip fractures in Sweden, with consequences for future projections.

Indexed as

Hip FracturesAged, 80 and overAlgorithmsDeathFemaleHumansMaleSweden

Identifiers

PMID38184745
PMCPMC10771431
OpenAlexW4390639756

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.