ArticleJournal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)2024
Methods and Assumptions for Estimating Key HIV Indicators in the UNAIDS Annual Estimates Process.
Article in Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- HIV prevalence in transgender women and cisgender men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Pooled it
- Probability of vertical HIV transmission: a systematic review and meta-regression.The lancet. HIV · 2025Pooled it
- Excess mortality attributable to AIDS among people living with HIV in high-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Pooled it
- Caregiver-Mediated Adherence and Perceived Health System Factors Associated with Viral Suppression Among Children Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural South Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Drivers of Vertical HIV Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Targeted and Universal Lenacapavir Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Incidence of Cancers Among Children Living With HIV in Malawi After Widespread Availability of Antiretroviral Therapy: A Population-Based Study.JCO global oncology · 2026Article
- Establishing HIV transmission pathways in Bhutan: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2025Article
- The potential impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions - a modelling exercise.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Malaria parasitemia and its association with CD4 cells, viral load and haematological parameters among HIV-infected children < 15 years in the Bonasssama Health District, Douala, Cameroon: Prevalence and risk factors.Parasite epidemiology and control · 2024Review
- Updated Data and Methods for the 2023 UNAIDS HIV Estimates.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundEach year UNAIDS supports national teams to estimate key HIV indicators using their latest data. These estimates are produced using a collection of models and software tools. This paper describes the demographic and HIV projection models used in this process.
methodsThe demographic model (DemProj) projects the population by sex and single age for each year of the estimate. This information is fed into the HIV model (AIDS Impact Model) to estimate key HIV indicators. The model uses program, survey and surveillance data along with incidence trends produced through 1 of several separate models, to estimate new HIV infections, HIV-related deaths, and the population living with HIV by sex, age, CD4 category, and treatment status.
resultsThese models allow the annual production of estimates of key HIV indicators including uncertainty intervals. This information is used to track progress toward national and global goals and to develop national strategic plans, Global Fund applications and PEPFAR country operational plans.
conclusionsUnder the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling and Projections, these models are updated on a regular basis in response to evolving programmatic needs, new data, and analyses. This process of continuous review and improvement has led to mature models that make the best use of available data to provide estimates of indicators important to monitoring progress and developing future plans.
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