ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2023
Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.
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Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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110 authors.
Sarabeth M MathisCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3131-307X
Alexander E WebberCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0485-6829
Tomás M LeónCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 95899.ORCID 0000-0002-7633-677X
Erin L MurrayCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 95899.ORCID 0000-0002-6674-4868
Monica SunCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 95899.
Lauren A WhiteCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 95899.ORCID 0000-0003-3852-5374
Logan C BrooksCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213.ORCID 0000-0003-0877-4978
Alden GreenCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213.
Addison J HuCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213.ORCID 0000-0002-9339-7291
Daniel J McDonaldUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-0443-4282
Roni RosenfeldCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213.ORCID 0000-0002-3274-5862
Dmitry ShemetovCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213.
Ryan J TibshiraniCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213.ORCID 0000-0002-2158-8304
Sasikiran KandulaNorwegian Institute of Public Health, 0213 Oslo, Norway.ORCID 0000-0002-6248-9097
Sen PeiColumbia University, New York, NY, 10032.ORCID 0000-0002-7072-2995
Jeffrey ShamanColumbia University, New York, NY, 10032.ORCID 0000-0002-7216-7809
Rami YaariColumbia University, New York, NY, 10032.ORCID 0000-0002-8808-8937
Teresa K YamanaColumbia University, New York, NY, 10032.ORCID 0000-0001-8349-3151
Pulak AgarwalGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318.
Srikar BalusuGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318.
Gautham GururajanGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318.
Harshavardhan KamarthiGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318.ORCID 0000-0002-2901-7127
B Aditya PrakashGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318.ORCID 0000-0002-3252-455X
Rishi RamanGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318.
Alexander RodríguezUniversity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109.ORCID 0000-0002-4313-9913
Zhiyuan ZhaoGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318.
Akilan MeiyappanGuidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services, McClean VA, 22102.
Shalina OmarGuidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services, McClean VA, 22102.
Prasith BaccamIEM, Bel Air, MD, 21015.
Heidi L GurungIEM, Bel Air, MD, 21015.
Steve A StageIEM, Baton Rouge, LA, 70809.
Brad T SuchoskiIEM, Bel Air, MD, 21015.
Marco AjelliIndiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, 47405.
Allisandra G KummerIndiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, 47405.
Maria LitvinovaIndiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, 47405.
Paulo C VenturaIndiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, 47405.
Spencer WadsworthIowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011.
Jarad NiemiIowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011.ORCID 0000-0002-5079-158X
Erica CarcelenJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205.
Alison L HillJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205.ORCID 0000-0002-6583-3623
Sung-Mok JungUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC.ORCID 0000-0002-0787-4515
Joseph C LemaitreUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC.ORCID 0000-0002-2677-6574
Justin LesslerUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC.ORCID 0000-0002-9741-8109
Sara L LooJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205.ORCID 0000-0001-9763-5587
Clifton D McKeeJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205.ORCID 0000-0002-6149-0598
Koji SatoJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205.ORCID 0000-0002-3827-4459
Claire SmithJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205.ORCID 0000-0003-1069-9460
Shaun TrueloveJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205.ORCID 0000-0003-0538-0607
Thomas McAndrewLehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, 18015.ORCID 0000-0002-6362-9231
Wenxuan YeLehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, 18015.
Nikos BosseLondon School of Health and Tropical Medicine, London, UK, WC1E 7HT.
William S HlavacekLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545.ORCID 0000-0003-4383-8711
Yen Ting LinLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545.ORCID 0000-0001-6893-8423
Abhishek MallelaLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545.ORCID 0000-0003-3588-5358
Ye ChenNorthern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011.ORCID 0000-0001-8785-7653
Shelby M LammNorthern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011.
Jaechoul LeeNorthern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011.ORCID 0000-0003-0363-1628
Richard G PosnerNorthern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011.ORCID 0000-0002-0489-9397
Amanda C PerofskyFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20892.ORCID 0000-0001-7341-9193
Cécile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20892.ORCID 0000-0003-3243-4711
Leonardo ClementeNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.
Fred LuNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.
Austin G MeyerNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.
Mauricio SantillanaNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.ORCID 0000-0002-4206-418X
Matteo ChinazziNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.ORCID 0000-0002-5955-1929
Jessica T DavisNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.ORCID 0000-0003-0726-1855
Kunpeng MuNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.ORCID 0000-0002-8150-5363
Ana Pastore Y PionttiNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.ORCID 0000-0002-2894-0489
Alessandro VespignaniNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.ORCID 0000-0003-3419-4205
Xinyue XiongNortheastern University, Boston, MA, 02115.ORCID 0000-0003-4988-1075
Michal Ben-NunPredictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA 92121.ORCID 0000-0002-9164-0008
Pete RileyPredictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA 92121.ORCID 0000-0002-1859-456X
James TurtlePredictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA 92121.ORCID 0000-0003-0735-7769
Chis Hulme-LoweSignature Science, LLC, Austin, TX, 78759.
Shakeel JessaSignature Science, LLC, Austin, TX, 78759.
V P NagrajSignature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, 22911.
Stephen D TurnerSignature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, 22911.
Desiree WilliamsSignature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, 22911.
Avranil BasuUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602.ORCID 0000-0002-6282-6479
John M DrakeUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602.ORCID 0000-0003-4646-1235
Spencer J FoxUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30609.ORCID 0000-0003-1969-3778
Graham C GibsonLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545.
Ehsan SuezUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30609.ORCID 0000-0001-9620-7994
Edward W ThommesUniversity of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.
Monica G CojocaruUniversity of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.
Estee Y CramerUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.ORCID 0000-0003-1373-3177
Aaron GerdingUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.ORCID 0000-0002-4850-8802
Ariane StarkUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.
Evan L RayUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.
Nicholas G ReichUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.ORCID 0000-0003-3503-9899
Li ShandrossUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.
Nutcha WattanachitUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.
Yijin WangUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.
Martha W ZornUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003.
Majd Al AawarUniversity of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089.ORCID 0009-0004-9026-9085
Ajitesh SrivastavaUniversity of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089.ORCID 0000-0002-8706-5717
Lauren A MeyersUniversity of Texas Austin, Austin, TX, 78712.
Aniruddha AdigaUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903.ORCID 0000-0002-5396-1978
Benjamin HurtUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903.
Gursharn KaurUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903.
Bryan L LewisUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903.ORCID 0000-0003-0793-6082
Madhav MaratheUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903.ORCID 0000-0003-1653-0658
Srinivasan VenkatramananUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903.ORCID 0000-0002-0874-8692
Patrick ButlerVirginia Tech, Arlington, VA 22203.
Andrew FarabowVirginia Tech, Arlington, VA 22203.
Nikhil MuralidharStevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, 07030.ORCID 0000-0001-7068-2981
Naren RamakrishnanVirginia Tech, Arlington, VA 22203.
Carrie ReedCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA.
Matthew BiggerstaffCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5108-8311
Rebecca K BorcheringCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4309-2913
Funding
Methods for Reducing Spatial Uncertainty and Bias in Disease SurveillanceR01AI102939 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2013 to 2017
$4.6MHardening Software for Rule-based models-Competitive RevisionR01GM111510 · NIGMS · NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY · PI HLAVACEK, WILLIAM S, POSNER, RICHARD G · 2014 to 2023
$2.8MDevelopment of an Open-Source and Data-Driven Modeling Platform to Monitor and Forecast Disease ActivityR01GM130668 · NIGMS · NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY · PI SANTILLANA, MAURICIO · 2018 to 2022
$1.9MACL HHS U01IP001137NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001137NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI102939NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM111510NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM130668
Abstract
Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons. Forecast skill was evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperformed the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble was the 2
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