Association with menopausal hormone therapy and asymptomatic gallstones in US women in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Study.

15% of US adults have gallstones, most of which are clinically "silent". Several studies show that menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) increases symptomatic gallstones and cholecystectomy risk. MHT use may be contraindicated in women with gallstones and population studies may be biased by "confounding by contraindication" while the true association between MHT and gallstones remains underestimated. We sought to examine whether MHT use was associated with asymptomatic gallstones using instrumental variable (IV) analysis to account for confounding by contraindication. We used 2018 postmenopausal women from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to estimate associations of MHT use with asymptomatic gallstones. A traditional logistic regression analysis was compared to instrumental variable (IV) analysis to account for confounding by contraindication. 12% of women with asymptomatic gallstones and 25% of women without gallstones were current MHT users (P < 0.001). The traditional analysis suggested a decreased odds of asymptomatic gallstones in current versus never users (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37, 0.89), but increased odds (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.44, 5.16) in the IV analysis. The traditional analysis consistently underestimated the odds of asymptomatic gallstones with MHT use compared to the IV analysis. Accounting for confounding by contraindication, we found a suggestive, though imprecise, positive association between MHT use and asymptomatic gallstones among postmenopausal women. Failure to consider contraindication can produce incorrect results.