ArticleBMC public health2024
Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on hepatitis B and forecasting the epidemiological trend in mainland China: a causal analysis.
Article in BMC public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Spatiotemporal epidemiology of hepatitis B in Central China: urbanization drivers and implications for adult-targeted control strategies.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Forecasting monthly hepatitis B cases in China: a nationwide comparative study based on surveillance data.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Trends and forecasting of reported hepatitis B and hepatitis C incidence in Hainan Province, China, 2005-2020.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on HIV and hepatitis B testing in Western Iran: insights from an interrupted time series analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- The Global Burden of Cirrhosis and Other Chronic Liver Diseases in 2021.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2025Article
- Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIt is uncertain how COVID-19 outbreak influences the hepatitis B epidemics. This study aims to evaluate the effects on hepatitis B owing to the COVID-19 outbreak and forecast the hepatitis B epidemiological trend in mainland China to speed up the course of the "End viral hepatitis Strategy".
methodsWe estimated the causal impacts and created a forecast through adopting monthly notifications of hepatitis B each year from 2005 to 2020 in mainland China using the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method.
resultsThe hepatitis B epidemics fluctuates irregularly during the period 2005-2007(APC = 8.7, P = 0.246) and 2015-2020(APC = 1.7, P = 0.290), and there is a downturn (APC=-3.2, 95% CI -5.2 to -1.2, P = 0.006) from 2007 to 2015 in mainland China. The COVID-19 outbreak was found to have a monthly average reduction on the hepatitis B epidemics of 26% (95% CI 18-35%) within the first three months in 2020,17% (95% CI 7.7-26%) within the first six months in 2020, and 10% (95% CI19-22%) all year as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, (probability of causal effect = 96.591%, P = 0.034) and the forecasts showed an upward trend from 2021 to 2025 (annual percentage change = 4.18, 95% CI 4.0 to 4.3, P < 0.001).
conclusionThe COVID-19 has a positive effect on the decline of hepatitis B cases. And the potential of BSTS model to forecast the epidemiological trend of the hepatitis B can be applied in automatic public health policymaking in mainland China.
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