ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024
The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mobility data resolution needed to inform predictive models of spatial epidemic spread from mobile phone data.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Resilience of mobility network to dynamic population response across COVID-19 interventions: Evidences from Chile.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Mobile phone data analyses for public health research: a scoping review.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Chronic disease and infection in China: lessons from the covid-19 pandemic.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2024Article
- Pandemic preparedness: On the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions in COVID-19 and about approaches to predict future pandemic viruses.Microbial biotechnology · 2024Article
- Exploring infectious disease spread as a function of seasonal and pandemic-induced changes in human mobility.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundFrance implemented a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to manage the COVID-19 pandemic between September 2020 and June 2021. These included a lockdown in the fall 2020 - the second since the start of the pandemic - to counteract the second wave, followed by a long period of nighttime curfew, and by a third lockdown in the spring 2021 against the Alpha wave. Interventions have so far been evaluated in isolation, neglecting the spatial connectivity between regions through mobility that may impact NPI effectiveness.
methodsFocusing on September 2020-June 2021, we developed a regionally-based epidemic metapopulation model informed by observed mobility fluxes from daily mobile phone data and fitted the model to regional hospital admissions. The model integrated data on vaccination and variants spread. Scenarios were designed to assess the impact of the Alpha variant, characterized by increased transmissibility and risk of hospitalization, of the vaccination campaign and alternative policy decisions.
resultsThe spatial model better captured the heterogeneity observed in the regional dynamics, compared to models neglecting inter-regional mobility. The third lockdown was similarly effective to the second lockdown after discounting for immunity, Alpha, and seasonality (51% vs 52% median regional reduction in the reproductive number R
conclusionsSpatial connectivity induced by mobility impacted the effectiveness of interventions especially in regions with higher mobility rates. Early evening curfew with gastronomy sector closed allowed authorities to delay the third wave. Stop-and-go lockdowns could have substantially lowered both healthcare and societal burdens if implemented early enough, compared to the observed application of lockdown-curfew-lockdown, but likely at the expense of several labor sectors. These findings contribute to characterize the effectiveness of implemented strategies and improve pandemic preparedness.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.