Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38163961›Full record

ArticleJournal of chemical theory and computation2024

Markov State Models: To Optimize or Not to Optimize.

Robert E Arbon, Yanchen Zhu, Antonia S J S Mey

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of chemical theory and computation, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Coarse-Graining Self-Assembly by the Stochastic Landscape Method.Journal of chemical theory and computation · 2025
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  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Robert E ArbonEaStCHEM School of Chemistry, David Brewster Road, Joseph Black Building, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, United Kingdom.
Yanchen ZhuEaStCHEM School of Chemistry, David Brewster Road, Joseph Black Building, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, United Kingdom.
Antonia S J S MeyEaStCHEM School of Chemistry, David Brewster Road, Joseph Black Building, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-7512-5252

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Markov state models (MSM) are a popular statistical method for analyzing the conformational dynamics of proteins including protein folding. With all statistical and machine learning (ML) models, choices must be made about the modeling pipeline that cannot be directly learned from the data. These choices, or hyperparameters, are often evaluated by expert judgment or, in the case of MSMs, by maximizing variational scores such as the VAMP-2 score. Modern ML and statistical pipelines often use automatic hyperparameter selection techniques ranging from the simple, choosing the best score from a random selection of hyperparameters, to the complex, optimization via, e.g., Bayesian optimization. In this work, we ask whether it is possible to automatically select MSM models this way by estimating and analyzing over 16,000,000 observations from over 280,000 estimated MSMs. We find that differences in hyperparameters can change the physical interpretation of the optimization objective, making automatic selection difficult. In addition, we find that enforcing conditions of equilibrium in the VAMP scores can result in inconsistent model selection. However, other parameters that specify the VAMP-2 score (lag time and number of relaxation processes scored) have only a negligible influence on model selection. We suggest that model observables and variational scores should be only a guide to model selection and that a full investigation of the MSM properties should be undertaken when selecting hyperparameters.

Indexed as

ProteinsVesicle-Associated Membrane Protein 2Bayes TheoremMachine LearningMarkov ChainsProtein FoldingProteinsVesicle-Associated Membrane Protein 2

Identifiers

PMID38163961
PMCPMC10809420

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.