Development and Validation of a Protein Risk Score for Mortality in Heart Failure : A Community Cohort Study.

backgroundHeart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with high mortality. Current risk stratification approaches lack precision. High-throughput proteomics could improve risk prediction. Its use in clinical practice to guide the management of patients with HF depends on validation and evidence of clinical benefit.

objectiveTo develop and validate a protein risk score for mortality in patients with HF.

designCommunity-based cohort.

settingSoutheast Minnesota.

participantsPatients with HF enrolled between 2003 and 2012 and followed through 2021. MEASUREMENTS: A total of 7289 plasma proteins in 1351 patients with HF were measured using the SomaScan Assay (SomaLogic). A protein risk score was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and temporal validation in patients enrolled between 2003 and 2007 (development cohort) and 2008 and 2012 (validation cohort). Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between the protein risk score and mortality. The performance of the protein risk score to predict 5-year mortality risk was assessed using calibration plots, decision curves, and relative utility analyses and compared with a clinical model, including the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure mortality risk score and

resultsThe development ( LIMITATION: Participants were predominantly of European ancestry, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings to different patient populations.

conclusionValidation of the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration and evidence of predicted benefits to stratify the risk for death in HF superior to that of clinical methods. Further studies are needed to prospectively evaluate the score's performance in diverse populations and determine risk thresholds for interventions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Division of Intramural Research at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.