ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2023
Trends and Projection of the Incidence of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Southwestern China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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13 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prevalence of active pulmonary tuberculosis in Hainan, China: a population-based, cross-sectional survey.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Temporal trends in tuberculosis incidence among the aging population in Southwest China: a retrospective study.BMC geriatrics · 2026Article
- Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiological trends from 2005 to 2024 and forecasts for 2035 in Sichuan Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Epidemiology and Treatment Outcomes of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Dazu District, Chongqing, China, 2005-2024: Surveillance Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Article
- Hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in mainland China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Trends and projection of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Hubei Province, china: an age‒period‒cohort modeling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- The impact of population aging on tuberculosis prevention and control in Shanghai: a prediction based on age-period-cohort models.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2025Article
- Trends in the burden of chronic kidney disease related to high red meat intake from 1990 to 2021.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Incidence and mortality by pulmonary tuberculosis in Brazil: Trends and projections, 2002-2034.IJID regions · 2025Article
- Age-period-cohort study of active pulmonary tuberculosis in eastern China: analysis of 15-year surveillance data.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of periodontal diseases from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2040: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in oral health · 2025Article
- Application of the age-period-cohort model in tuberculosis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Age-period-cohort analysis and prediction of tuberculosis trends in China-based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundThe control of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is critical for achieving the vision of World Health Organization's End TB goal.
objectiveThis study analyzes the temporal trends in PTB incidence associated with age, period, and birth cohorts from 2006 to 2020 in Yunnan, China; projects the PTB burden till 2030; and explores the drivers of PTB incidence.
methodsThe aggregated PTB incidence rates between 2005 and 2020 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. We used the age-period-cohort model to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects on PTB incidence. We applied the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project future PTB incidence from 2021 to 2030. We applied the decomposition algorithm to attribute the incidence trends to population aging, population growth, and age-specific changes from 2006 to 2030.
resultsFrom 2006 to 2020, the PTB incidence in Yunnan was relatively stable, although the absolute number showed an increase. The net drift was -1.56% (95% CI -2.41% to -0.70%). An M-shaped bimodal local drift and a longitudinal age curve were observed. The overall local drift was below zero for most age groups except for the age groups of 15-19 years (2.37%, 95% CI -0.28% to 5.09%) and 50-54 years (0.41%, 95% CI -1.78% to 2.64%). The highest risk of PTB incidence was observed in the age group of 65-69 years, and another peak was observed in the age group of 20-24 years. Downward trends were observed for both period and cohort effects, but the cohort effect trends were uneven. A higher risk was observed for the birth cohorts of 1961-1970 (rate ratio [RR]
conclusionsAlthough there are several levels and measures for PTB control, the disease burden is likely to increase in the future. To bridge the gap of TB-free vision, our study suggests that public health policies be put in place soon, including large-scale active case-finding, priority prevention policies for high-risk older adult and young adult populations, and reduction of possible grandparent-grandchildren transmission patterns.
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