A precise blood transfusion evaluation model for aortic surgery: a single-center retrospective study.

Cardiac aortic surgery is an extremely complicated procedure that often requires large volume blood transfusions during the operation. Currently, it is not possible to accurately estimate the intraoperative blood transfusion volume before surgery. Therefore, in this study, to determine the clinically precise usage of blood for intraoperative blood transfusions during aortic surgery, we established a predictive model based on machine learning algorithms. We performed a retrospective analysis on 4,285 patients who received aortic surgery in Beijing Anzhen Hospital between January 2018 and September 2022. Ultimately, 3,654 patients were included in the study, including 2,557 in the training set and 1,097 in the testing set. By utilizing 13 current mainstream models and a large-scale cardiac aortic surgery dataset, we built a novel machine learning model for accurately predicting intraoperative red blood cell transfusion volume. Based on the transfusion-related risk factors that the model identified, we also established the relevant variables that affected the results. The results revealed that decision tree models were the most suitable for predicting the blood transfusion volume during aortic surgery. In particular, the mean absolute error for the best-performing extremely randomized forest model was 1.17 U, while the R