ArticleValue in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research2024
Modeling Thyroid Cancer Epidemiology in the United States Using Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Microsimulation Model.
Article in Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Scoping Review of the Literature on Child and/or Adolescent Health Microsimulation Models.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Review
- Article
- The Thyroid Under Pressure: Heavy Metals, Endocrine Disruptors and Translational Insights into Carcinogenesis and Thyroid Dysfunctions.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Quality of life utility-Core 10 dimensions (QLU-C10D) scores based on cancer patients' health preferences are more sensitive than those based on general public's health preferences.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026Article
- Article
- Overdiagnosis of Papillary Thyroid Cancer.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Integrating Robotic Bilateral Axillo-Breast Approach Thyroidectomy with Molecular Diagnostics and Artificial Intelligence in Thyroid Cancer Care.Biomolecules & therapeutics · 2026Review
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- GPER in metabolic homeostasis and disease: molecular mechanisms, nutritional regulation, and therapeutic potential.Journal of translational medicine · 2025Review
- Thyroid Cancer: Epidemiology, Classification, Risk Factors, Diagnostic and Prognostic Markers, and Current Treatment Strategies.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Review
- Machine Learning for Thyroid Cancer Detection, Presence of Metastasis, and Recurrence Predictions-A Scoping Review.Cancers · 2025Review
- Recent advances in gut microbiota and thyroid disease: pathogenesis and therapeutics in autoimmune, neoplastic, and nodular conditions.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThyroid cancer incidence increased over 200% from 1992 to 2018, whereas mortality rates had not increased proportionately. The increased incidence has been attributed primarily to the detection of subclinical disease, raising important questions related to thyroid cancer control. We developed the Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Microsimulation model (PATCAM) to answer them, including the impact of overdiagnosis on thyroid cancer incidence.
methodsPATCAM simulates individuals from age 15 until death in birth cohorts starting from 1975 using 4 inter-related components, including natural history, detection, post-diagnosis, and other-cause mortality. PATCAM was built using high-quality data and calibrated against observed age-, sex-, and stage-specific incidence in the United States as reported by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. PATCAM was validated against US thyroid cancer mortality and 3 active surveillance studies, including the largest and longest running thyroid cancer active surveillance cohort in the world (from Japan) and 2 from the United States.
resultsPATCAM successfully replicated age- and stage-specific papillary thyroid cancers (PTC) incidence and mean tumor size at diagnosis and PTC mortality in the United States between 1975 and 2015. PATCAM accurately predicted the proportion of tumors that grew more than 3 mm and 5 mm in 5 years and 10 years, aligning with the 95% confidence intervals of the reported rates from active surveillance studies in most cases.
conclusionsPATCAM successfully reproduced observed US thyroid cancer incidence and mortality over time and was externally validated. PATCAM can be used to identify factors that influence the detection of subclinical PTCs.
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