ArticleCancer medicine2024
A dynamic time-to-event model for prediction of acute graft-versus-host disease in patients after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.
Article in Cancer medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- The digital keystone: how artificial intelligence is reshaping HLA research and clinical practice.Immunogenetics · 2026Review
- Development of an ensemble prediction model for acute graft-versus-host disease in allogeneic transplantation based on machine learning.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- Model-Based Prediction of Clinically Relevant Thrombocytopenia after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics · 2025Article
- A dynamic time-to-event model for prediction of acute graft-versus-host disease in patients after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.Cancer medicine · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
25 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAcute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) is a major cause of death for patients following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Effective management of moderate to severe aGvHD remains challenging despite recent advances in HSCT, emphasizing the importance of prophylaxis and risk factor identification.
methodsIn this study, we analyzed data from 1479 adults who underwent HSCT between 2005 and 2017 to investigate the effects of aGvHD prophylaxis and time-dependent risk factors on the development of grades II-IV aGvHD within 100 days post-HSCT.
resultsUsing a dynamic longitudinal time-to-event model, we observed a non-monotonic baseline hazard overtime with a low hazard during the first few days and a maximum hazard at day 17, described by Bateman function with a mean transit time of approximately 11 days. Multivariable analysis revealed significant time-dependent effects of white blood cell counts and cyclosporine A exposure as well as static effects of female donors for male recipients, patients with matched related donors, conditioning regimen consisting of fludarabine plus total body irradiation, and patient age in recipients of grafts from related donors on the risk to develop grades II-IV aGvHD. Additionally, we found that higher cumulative hazard on day 7 after allo-HSCT are associated with an increased incidence of grades II-IV aGvHD within 100 days indicating that an individual assessment of the cumulative hazard on day 7 could potentially serve as valuable predictor for later grades II-IV aGvHD development. Using the final model, stochastic simulations were performed to explore covariate effects on the cumulative incidence over time and to estimate risk ratios.
conclusionOverall, the presented model showed good descriptive and predictive performance and provides valuable insights into the interplay of multiple static and time-dependent risk factors for the prediction of aGvHD.
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