Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38131311›Full record

ArticleeLife2023

How accurately can one predict drug binding modes using AlphaFold models?

Masha Karelina, Joseph J Noh, Ron O Dror

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in eLife, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 74 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
74citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

74 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Target identification and assessment in the era of AI.Nature reviews. Drug discovery · 2026
    Review
  11. Stabilizing Plasmodium falciparum proteins for small molecule drug discovery.Protein science : a publication of the Protein Society · 2026
    Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Reimagining pharmacology education.Pharmacological reviews · 2026
    Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Discovery of Covalent Ligands with AlphaFold3.Journal of the American Chemical Society · 2026
    Article
  19. Review
  20. Article

14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Masha KarelinaBiophysics Program, Stanford University, Stanford, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-1880-4536
Joseph J NohDepartment of Computer Science, Stanford University, Stanford, United States.
Ron O DrorBiophysics Program, Stanford University, Stanford, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-6418-2793

Funding

National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Computational prediction of protein structure has been pursued intensely for decades, motivated largely by the goal of using structural models for drug discovery. Recently developed machine-learning methods such as AlphaFold 2 (AF2) have dramatically improved protein structure prediction, with reported accuracy approaching that of experimentally determined structures. To what extent do these advances translate to an ability to predict more accurately how drugs and drug candidates bind to their target proteins? Here, we carefully examine the utility of AF2 protein structure models for predicting binding poses of drug-like molecules at the largest class of drug targets, the G-protein-coupled receptors. We find that AF2 models capture binding pocket structures much more accurately than traditional homology models, with errors nearly as small as differences between structures of the same protein determined experimentally with different ligands bound. Strikingly, however, the accuracy of ligand-binding poses predicted by computational docking to AF2 models is not significantly higher than when docking to traditional homology models and is much lower than when docking to structures determined experimentally without these ligands bound. These results have important implications for all those who might use predicted protein structures for drug discovery.

Indexed as

FurylfuramideReceptors, G-Protein-CoupledBinding SitesDrug DiscoveryLigandsMolecular Docking SimulationProtein BindingProtein ConformationFurylfuramideLigandsReceptors, G-Protein-Coupleddrug discoveryGPCRhomology modelingligand pose predictionmolecular biophysicsmolecular dockingnonesmall moleculestructural biology

Identifiers

PMID38131311
PMCPMC10746139

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.