Breast MRI radiomics and machine learning-based predictions of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy - How are they affected by variations in tumor delineation?

Manual delineation of volumes of interest (VOIs) by experts is considered the gold-standard method in radiomics analysis. However, it suffers from inter- and intra-operator variability. A quantitative assessment of the impact of variations in these delineations on the performance of the radiomics predictors is required to develop robust radiomics based prediction models. In this study, we developed radiomics models for the prediction of pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with two different breast cancer subtypes based on contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging acquired prior to treatment (baseline MRI scans). Different mathematical operations such as erosion, smoothing, dilation, randomization, and ellipse fitting were applied to the original VOIs delineated by experts to simulate variations of segmentation masks. The effects of such VOI modifications on various steps of the radiomics workflow, including feature extraction, feature selection, and prediction performance, were evaluated. Using manual tumor VOIs and radiomics features extracted from baseline MRI scans, an AUC of up to 0.96 and 0.89 was achieved for human epidermal growth receptor 2 positive and triple-negative breast cancer, respectively. For smoothing and erosion, VOIs yielded the highest number of robust features and the best prediction performance, while ellipse fitting and dilation lead to the lowest robustness and prediction performance for both breast cancer subtypes. At most 28% of the selected features were similar to manual VOIs when different VOI delineation data were used. Differences in VOI delineation affect different steps of radiomics analysis, and their quantification is therefore important for development of standardized radiomics research.