ArticleNature communications2023
Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Metabolism and Excretion of Synthetic Extended Viperin Pathway Deoxydidehydronucleosides in the Sprague-Dawley Rat.Journal of proteome research · 2026Article
- Wastewater Surveillance: A National Concept for Germany-A Refined Approach to Surveillance Site Selection.Microorganisms · 2026Article
- Assessing early detection ability through spatial arrangements in environmental surveillance for poliovirus: A simulation-based study.PloS one · 2025Article
- Early detection of cardiorespiratory complications and training monitoring using wearable ECG sensors and CNN.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2024Article
- EU surveys insights: analytical tools, future directions, and the essential requirement for reference materials in wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2, antimicrobial resistance and beyond.Human genomics · 2024Article
- Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.Nature communications · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Researchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empirically validated, and mathematically characterized a quantitative model that simulates disease spread and detection time for any given disease and detection system. We find that hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier than it was actually discovered, at 2,300 cases (standard error: 76 cases) compared to 3,400 (standard error: 161 cases). Wastewater monitoring would not have accelerated COVID-19 detection in Wuhan, but provides benefit in smaller catchments and for asymptomatic or long-incubation diseases like polio or HIV/AIDS. Air travel monitoring does not accelerate outbreak detection in most scenarios we evaluated. In sum, early detection systems can substantially mitigate some future pandemics, but would not have changed the course of COVID-19.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.