Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38114469›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Undiscovered bird extinctions obscure the true magnitude of human-driven extinction waves.

Rob Cooke, Ferran Sayol, Tobias Andermann, Tim M Blackburn, Manuel J Steinbauer, Alexandre Antonelli, Søren Faurby

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
48.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 46 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Global biodiversity and the expanding Tree of Life.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  6. Underrepresentation of bats in Africa's protected areas.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026
    Article
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  8. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

Rob CookeUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK. roboke@ceh.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-0601-8888
Ferran SayolDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, SE-405 30, Göteborg, Sweden.
Tobias AndermannDepartment of Organismal Biology, SciLifeLab, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-0932-1623
Tim M BlackburnCentre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0152-2663
Manuel J SteinbauerBayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER) & Bayreuth Center of Sport Science (BaySpo), University of Bayreuth, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-7142-9272
Alexandre AntonelliDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, SE-405 30, Göteborg, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0003-1842-9297
Søren FaurbyDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, SE-405 30, Göteborg, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-2974-2628
Göteborgs Stads · SERoyal Botanic Gardens, Kew · GBUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology · GBUniversity of Bayreuth · DEUppsala University · SEZoological Society of London · GB

Funding

Carl Tryggers Stiftelse för Vetenskaplig Forskning (Carl Trygger Foundation) CTS 18:105Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) STE 2360/2-1 embedded in FOR 2332EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Excellent Science (H2020 Priority Excellent Science) 741413 Humans on Planet Earth (HOPE)"la Caixa" Foundation (Caixa Foundation) LCF/BQ/PI23/11970019Science for Life Laboratory (SciLifeLab) KAW 2020.0239Stiftelsen för Miljöstrategisk Forskning (Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research) MISTRA (Project BioPath)Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council) 2017-03862Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council) 2019-05191
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Birds are among the best-studied animal groups, but their prehistoric diversity is poorly known due to low fossilization potential. Hence, while many human-driven bird extinctions (i.e., extinctions caused directly by human activities such as hunting, as well as indirectly through human-associated impacts such as land use change, fire, and the introduction of invasive species) have been recorded, the true number is likely much larger. Here, by combining recorded extinctions with model estimates based on the completeness of the fossil record, we suggest that at least ~1300-1500 bird species (~12% of the total) have gone extinct since the Late Pleistocene, with 55% of these extinctions undiscovered (not yet discovered or left no trace). We estimate that the Pacific accounts for 61% of total bird extinctions. Bird extinction rate varied through time with an intense episode ~1300 CE, which likely represents the largest human-driven vertebrate extinction wave ever, and a rate 80 (60-95) times the background extinction rate. Thus, humans have already driven more than one in nine bird species to extinction, with likely severe, and potentially irreversible, ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Indexed as

BirdsExtinction, BiologicalAnimalsAnthropogenic EffectsIntroduced Species

Identifiers

PMID38114469
PMCPMC10730700
OpenAlexW4389935391

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.