ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Projections of human kinship for all countries.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 39 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Role of Extended Family Members in the Lives of Autistic Individuals and Their Parents: A Systematic Review and Meta-Synthesis.Clinical child and family psychology review · 2025Pooled it
- Navigating aging and health with limited family ties across societies: Challenges, adaptations, and policy responses.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the boundary of family involvement in shared decision-making: a confucian benevolence model for the Chinese context.BMC medical ethics · 2026Article
- The Future Availability of Family Caregivers: Implications for Late-Life Care Gaps.Population research and policy review · 2026Article
- The Present and Future Dementia Burden in China: Kinship-Based Projections and Global Comparisons.Demography · 2025Article
- The Kinship Formula: Inferring the numbers of all kin from any structured population projection model.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Kinship Structures for Left Behind Older Adults in High Outmigration Contexts: Evidence From Puerto Rico.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2025Article
- Development of a New Measure of Intergenerational Contact.Journal of adult development · 2025Article
- Understanding deep disadvantage at the end of life: A nationwide analysis of unclaimed deaths.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2025Article
- When parental care hurts: extended parental care and the evolution of overparenting.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2025Review
- A framework for ageing and health vulnerabilities in a changing climate.Nature climate change · 2024Article
- Changes in Family Structure and Increasing Care Gaps in the United States, 2015-2050.Demography · 2024Article
- The long-lasting effect of armed conflicts deaths on the living: Quantifying family bereavement.Science advances · 2024Article
- Projections of human kinship for all countries.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Demographers have long attempted to project future changes in the size and composition of populations, but have ignored what these processes will mean for the size, composition, and age distribution of family networks. Kinship structures matter because family solidarity-a crucial source of informal care for millions of people around the world-is conditional on kin being alive. Here, we present innovative projections of biological kin for the 1950 to 2100 period and discuss what they imply for the availability of informal care. Overall, we project that the number of living kin for individuals will decline dramatically worldwide. While a 65-yo woman in 1950 could expect to have 41 living kin, a 65-yo woman in 2095 is projected to have just 25 [18.8 to 34.7] relatives (lower and upper 80% projection intervals). This represents a 38% [15 to 54] global decline. The composition of family networks is also expected to change, with the numbers of living grandparents and great-grandparents markedly increasing, and the numbers of cousins, nieces and nephews, and grandchildren declining. Family networks will age considerably, as we project a widening age gap between individuals and their kin due to lower and later fertility and longer lifespans. In Italy, for example, the average age of a grandmother of a 35-yo woman is expected to increase from 77.9 y in 1950 to 87.7 y [87.1 to 88.5] in 2095. The projected changes in kin supply will put pressure on the already stretched institutional systems of social support, as more individuals age with smaller and older family networks.
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