Estimating the economic burden of colorectal cancer in China, 2019-2030: A population-level prevalence-based analysis.

backgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Comprehensive data on the economic burden of CRC at a population-level is critical in informing policymaking, but such data are currently limited in China.

methodsFrom a societal perspective, the economic burden of CRC in 2019 was estimated, including direct medical and nonmedical expenditure, disability, and premature-death-related indirect expenditure. Data on disease burden was taken from the GBD 2019 and analyzed using a prevalence-based approach. The per-person direct expenditure and work loss days were from a multicenter study; the premature-death-related expenditure was estimated using a human capital approach. Projections were conducted in different simulated scenarios. All expenditure data were in Chinese Yuan (CNY) and discounted to 2019.

resultsIn 2019, the estimated overall economic burden of CRC in China was CNY170.5 billion (0.189% of the local GDP). The direct expenditure was CNY106.4 billion (62.4% of the total economic burden), 91.4% of which was a direct medical expenditure. The indirect expenditure was CNY64.1 billion, of which 63.7% was related to premature death. The predicted burden would reach CNY560.0 billion in 2030 given constant trends for disease burden; however, it would be alternatively reduced to <CNY515.2 billion if the cancer prevention and control goals set by the United Nations and China for 2030 are achieved.

conclusionsThe population-level economic burden of CRC in China in 2019 seemed noteworthy, with the direct expenditure accounting for more than half. Without effectively reducing exposure to modifiable factors and expanding screening coverage, the burden would continue increasing.