ArticleEcology and evolution2023
Evaluating the predictive performance of presence-absence models: Why can the same model appear excellent or poor?
Article in Ecology and evolution, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- The southward expansion of Anopheles farauti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Australia: a genetic and ecological niche modeling investigation.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- Projecting the spatio-temporal habitat suitability of Striga hermonthica under climate change scenarios in Ethiopia using ensemble modeling.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Chemical and Physicochemical Water Quality Parameters and Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis as Key Tools to Evaluate Dam Influence on Adjacent Surface Waters: Evidence from Bulgarian Reservoirs.Molecules (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- A model-based assessment of anthropogenic disturbance on lotic macroinvertebrate assemblages.Ecosphere (Washington, D.C) · 2025Article
- Common to rare transfer learning (CORAL) enables inference and prediction for a quarter million rare Malagasy arthropods.Nature methods · 2025Article
- The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The role of stochasticity in fungal community assembly: explaining apparent stochasticity with field experiments.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Projected Distributions of Two Key Vectors of Lumpy Skin Disease,Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Evaluating the predictive performance of presence-absence models: Why can the same model appear excellent or poor?Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
When comparing multiple models of species distribution, models yielding higher predictive performance are clearly to be favored. A more difficult question is how to decide whether even the best model is "good enough". Here, we clarify key choices and metrics related to evaluating the predictive performance of presence-absence models. We use a hierarchical case study to evaluate how four metrics of predictive performance (AUC, Tjur's
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.