Forecasting individual exercise sweat losses from forecast air temperature and energy expenditure.

Introduction: Recent success in predicting individual sweat losses from air temperature and energy expenditure measurements suggests a potential for forecasting individual sweat losses for future combinations of environment and exercise. The purpose of this study is to determine the plausibility of accurately forecasting exercise sweat losses from meteorological air temperature forecasts and individual running energy expenditure forecasts. The potential impact on plasma sodium is also estimated when setting drinking rates equal to forecast sweat losses. Materials and methods: Individual exercise sweat losses (equated to water needs) and energy expended while running were measured in 33 participants along with air temperature and compared with forecasts of the same. Forecast inputs were used in a web app to forecast exercise sweat losses for comparison with observed values. The bias between forecast and observed exercise sweat losses was used to calculate the potential drinking impact on plasma sodium. Results: The concordance correlation coefficient between forecast and observed values was 0.95, 0.96, and 0.91 for air temperature, energy expenditure, and exercise sweat losses, respectively, indicating excellent agreement and no significant differences observed via Conclusions: The outcomes support the strong potential for accurately forecasting exercise sweat losses from commonly available meteorological air temperature forecasts and energy expenditure from forecast running distance.