ArticleSystem dynamics review
Grounding alcohol simulation models in empirical and theoretical alcohol research: a model for a Northern Plains population in the United States.
Article in System dynamics review. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- System dynamics modelling methods for public health policy evaluation: a systematic literature review focussing on mental health and substance use disorders.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Linking Reductions in Alcohol and Birth Control Use Risk Behavior to Prevention of Alcohol-Exposed Pregnancy: A Population-Level Simulation of Preconceptual Prevention Programs.Alcohol, clinical & experimental research · 2026Article
- A systematic review of operational research modelling for alcohol consumption and its consequences.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2026Review
- Participatory Modeling for High Complexity, Multi-System Issues: Challenges and Recommendations for Balancing Qualitative Understanding and Quantitative Questions.System dynamics reviewArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
The growing number of systems science simulation models for alcohol use (AU) are often disconnected from AU models within empirical and theoretical alcohol research. As AU prevention/intervention efforts are typically grounded in alcohol research, this disconnect may reduce policy testing results, impact, and implementation. We developed a simulation model guided by AU research (accounting for the multiple AU stages defined by AU behavior and risk for harm and diverse transitions between stages). Simulated projections were compared to historical data to evaluate model accuracy and potential policy leverage points for prevention and intervention at risky drinking (RD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) stages. Results indicated prevention provided the greatest RD and AUD reduction; however, focusing exclusively on AUD prevention may not be effective for long-term change, given the continued increase in RD. This study makes a case for the strength and importance of aligning subject-based research with systems science simulation models.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.