Farm forests, seasonal hunger, and biomass poverty: Evidence of induced intensification from panel data in the Ethiopian Highlands.

Seasonal hunger is the most common food insecurity experience for millions of small dryland farmers. This study tests the relationships between food insecurity, farm forests, and biomass poverty using a longitudinal dataset from the Amhara region of Ethiopia. These data form part of the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey, which collected panel data over three survey rounds from 530 households between 2011 and 2016. This dataset represents a collection of unique socioeconomic, wellbeing, and micro-land use measures, including farm forests. Hierarchical mixed effect regression models assessed the relationship between food insecurity and farm forests as well as the conditional effects of biomass poverty among the poorest farmers and women-headed households. Over a six-year study period, farmers reported increased stress from smaller land holdings, higher prices, and climate-related shocks. A clear trend towards spontaneous dispersed afforestation is observed by both researchers and satellite remote sensing. Model results indicate, dedicating approximately 10% of farm area to forest reduces months of food insecurity by half. The greatest reductions in food insecurity from farm forests are reported by ultra-poor and crop residue-burning households, suggesting that biomass poverty may be a major constraint to resilient food security on these farms. This research provides novel quantitative evidence of induced intensification and food security impacts of farm management preserving and building stores of biomass value as green assets. The results reported here have important implications for nature-based solutions as a major strategy to achieve sustainable development in some contexts.