ArticleBMC public health2023
Trends and projections of inflammatory bowel disease at the global, regional and national levels, 1990-2050: a bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.
Article in BMC public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Efficacy and safety of IL-23p19 and IL-12/23p40 inhibitors in moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.Annals of medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Association between inflammatory bowel disease and the risk of liver cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Clinical and experimental medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Efficacy and safety of IL-23 p19 inhibitors in the treatment for inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2025Pooled it
- A modified Delphi consensus on fusion (laparoscopic and robotic) approaches to colorectal surgery in Asia-Pacific.Journal of gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Temporal Trends and Socio-Demographic Disparities in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2026Article
- Review
- Inflammatory bowel disease burden in China and the United States from 1990-2023 and prediction to 2050.Internal and emergency medicine · 2026Article
- Oral probiotic delivery-based therapeutic strategies for inflammatory bowel disease.Asian journal of pharmaceutical sciences · 2026Review
- Global trends in the burden of inflammatory bowel disease from 1990 to 2021: socioeconomic and sex-specific disparities with exploratory mendelian randomization analyses.Clinical and experimental medicine · 2026Article
- From microbiome profiling to precision medicine: diagnostic and therapeutic potential in gastrointestinal disorders: current evidence, challenges, and future directions.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2026Review
- Mapping the evolution of inflammatory bowel disease care in Brazil: a comparison of cross-sectional surveys from 2017 and 2023.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease among Children and Adolescents from 1990 to 2021 and Trend Projections up to 2036.Gut and liver · 2026Article
- Beyond the bowel: novel comorbidity patterns in inflammatory bowel disease from the all of us research program.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Understanding Frailty in IBD: Implications for Clinical Outcomes and Multidisciplinary Care.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Upadacitinib as rescue therapy for acute severe ulcerative colitis and severe Crohn's disease - current knowledge and future directions.Pharmacological reports : PR · 2026Review
- Mucin 2 and unfolded protein response reshape the mucus barrier in inflammatory bowel disease (Review).Molecular medicine reports · 2026Review
- H7F ameliorates DSS-induced colitis through restoration of intestinal barrier function and inhibition of IL-17/NF-κb signaling.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2026Article
- Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiological trends from 2005 to 2024 and forecasts for 2035 in Sichuan Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- From dysbiosis to precision medicine: targeting the microbial-metabolic axis in IBD management.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Review
- Selenium: A Key Element in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.Antioxidants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundInflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global health concern with varying levels and trends across countries and regions. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective prevention and treatment strategies.
methodsUsing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we examine IBD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates in 198 countries from 1990 to 2019. To assess changes in the burden of IBD, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the future 30-year trends of IBD.
resultsIn 2019, there were 405,000 new IBD cases globally (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 361,000 to 457,000), with 41,000 deaths (95% UI 35,000 to 45,000) and 1.62million DALYs (95% UI 1.36-1.92million). The global age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 4.97 per 100,000 person-years (95% UI 4.43 to 5.59), with a mortality rate of 0.54 (95% UI 0.46 to 0.59) and DALYs rate of 20.15 (95% UI 16.86 to 23.71). From 1990 to 2019, EAPC values for incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates were - 0.60 (95% UI - 0.73 to - 0.48), - 0.69 (95% UI - 0.81 to - 0.57), and - 1.04 (95% UI - 1.06 to - 1.01), respectively. Overall, the burden of IBD has shown a slow decline in recent years. In SDI stratification, regions with higher initial SDI (high-income North America and Central Europe) witnessed decreasing incidence and mortality rates with increasing SDI, while regions with lower initial SDI (South Asia, Oceania, and Latin America) experienced a rapid rise in incidence but a decrease in mortality with increasing SDI. Predictions using a Bayesian model showed lower new cases and deaths from 2020 to 2050 than reference values, while the slope of the predicted incidence-time curve closely paralleled that of the 2019 data.
conclusionIncreasing cases, deaths, and DALYs highlight the sustained burden of IBD on public health. Developed countries have stabilized or declining incidence rates but face high prevalence and societal burden. Emerging and developing countries experience rising incidence. Understanding these changes aids policymakers in effectively addressing IBD challenges in different regions and economic contexts.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.